The Big Ten Championship: Iowa vs. Michigan

Big Ten Championship Info:

Saturday December 4th 7:17 PM (CST) On FOX at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis

As a University of Iowa alum, I am not going to even attempt to hide my bias when it comes to the Iowa and Michigan game this weekend. My heart says that Iowa will win this game. My brain says that Iowa can win this game, and since my brain likes to go with facts and solid reasoning, I figured I would go with a breakdown of what Iowa and Michigan will bring to the table on Saturday night.

When Iowa Is On Offense

Line Play

Hey, I’m an Iowa fan, but I’m not blind. It’s going to be tough sledding for this offense. Iowa has bright spots. The brightest is their center, Tyler Linderbaum, head and shoulders the best center in all of college football and arguably the best offensive lineman period. Unfortunately for Iowa, one guy does not make an entire line, and Iowa’s offensive line has been average over the duration of the season. They have gotten better as they have seemed to find their best five guys, and the interior offensive line has actually performed quite well during the last month. The tackles have been a struggle all year long. I’m sure that won’t be a major issue when the Wolverines defense is out there…oh no.

Michigan might have the best pair of edge rushers in the country with Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo who have combined for 24 sacks this season. When Iowa played one elite edge rusher earlier this season in Purdue’s George Karlaftis, he, um, how should I phrase this? He tore their shit up. He fucked them up, real bad. There’s no way to excuse language if you saw what he did to the Iowa offensive line. The tackles are young and inexperienced and are likely getting better every game, but this matchup is terrifying for the Hawkeyes.

Quarterback

Adding to that terror is Iowa’s biggest weakness: Quarterback. Iowa has had two quarterbacks play this year, and it appears that it will be Spencer Petras for the Michigan game. This is not great considering many statues have more mobility than Petras (although he does have a mean QB sneak game). Not only is he immobile, but he is also prone to hold onto the ball way too long, part of the reason Iowa has given up so many sacks this season. If Petras gets off rhythm, nothing good will happen on that play. Michigan makes many quarterbacks play off rhythm, so I don’t have high hopes for the Iowa passing attack.

Skill Positions

Despite the troubles at quarterback, Iowa does have some interesting receiving options. Obviously, they are strong at tight end as Sam LaPorta is one of the best tight ends in the league. Even his backup, Luke Lachey can keep the chains moving. Outside, they have a lot of potential with their wide receivers. As time has gone on, two true freshman, Keagan Johnson and Arland Bruce IV have established themselves as go-to options. Bruce does things like this.

And Johnson does things like this.

They are very fun to watch. They are complemented by the efficient slot receiver, Nico Ragaini, and the wildcard, Charlie Jones. I still think Tyrone Tracy Jr. is very good, but he seems to have fallen out of favor in the rotation, and I think a trip to the transfer portal is likely after the season.

But the blueprint for beating Michigan has already been established, and it’s not with a statue-esque pocket passer carving them up throughout the game. It’s about running the ball down their throat. Michigan is phenomenal at rushing the passer, but they can be run on. This is where Tyler Goodson has to come in and have a big game. Michigan State was able to bring the attack to the Michigan defense as opposed to letting them attack the offense. This led to Kenneth Walker having nearly 200 yards rushing with five touchdowns. Now, I don’t expect Goodson to get anywhere near those numbers, but if he does about half that with 100 yards rushing and two touchdowns, Iowa has a very good chance of winning this game. There is more to defense than just pass rushing, and Michigan can get bullied in the run game. Iowa will need to have a significant day on the ground if it expects to win.

When Michigan Is On Offense

Much like the Hawkeyes, the Wolverines have an offense powered by their run game. Hassan Haskins was one of the best running backs in the Big Ten this year, accounting for over 1200 yards and 18 touchdowns, scoring five of those touchdowns last week against Ohio State. Where Michigan’s defensive strength is their pass rush, Iowa’s defensive strength is stopping the run. They are 14th in yards allowed and 8th in yards per attempt at under three yards per carry. Michigan does a lot of interesting things with motion to get their guys outside which will present a different challenge, but Iowa’s defense is incredibly disciplined, and they aren’t going to push around the Hawkeyes like they did the Buckeyes.

Michigan doesn’t want to pass the ball. I’m not saying they can’t; I’m just saying they don’t want to. Michigan’s pass rush is a viper that is quick to strike before you know you’re in danger. Iowa’s pass rush is a cobra slowly squeezing the life out of you. They just squeeze and squeeze the pocket until you have no room to move. It takes longer, so it doesn’t lead to nearly as many sacks, but it can cause panic in a quarterback. That panic has led to the Hawkeyes getting 22 interceptions this season, tops in the NCAA. Cade McNamara is not asked to do much, but he has been secure with the football, throwing just three interceptions this season. He’s only thrown for over 200 yards four times this season. He did so when Michigan blew out Maryland, barely got by both Penn State and Nebraska, and lost to Michigan State. Michigan throwing the ball is not the path they want to take to victory.

Special Teams

Both teams are very good on special teams. Iowa’s Caleb Shudak has been incredible in the kicking game, but Jake Moody is no slouch. Brad Robbins is a good punter for the Wolverines, but Iowa has an Australian punter in Tory Taylor, and if there is one football truth in this world, it’s that Australian punters are always awesome. One are where Iowa has the advantage is in the return game. Charlie Jones was the best returner in the conference. Iowa wants this to be a field position game, and Jones could be a big factor in giving Iowa that advantage.

X-Factor

I touched on it earlier, but it’s going to be turnovers. If Michigan doesn’t turn the ball over, Iowa’s path to victory is miniscule. But if Iowa finds ways to force turnovers, the Hawkeyes are the favorites. If Iowa is +1 in turnovers, this game is a coin flip. At +2, the game favors them heavily. If they can stuff the run and force McNamara to try to lead the offense, it’s not that big of a reach to think the Hawkeyes can do it.

The Pick

Come on, I don’t need to listen to my brain for this one. My heart has already told me everything I need to know.

Iowa 19, Michigan 16

Championship Weekend Picks

UTSA +3 over Western Kentucky

Utah -3 over Oregon

Kent State -3.5 over Northern Illinois

App State -3 over ULL

Baylor +6.5 over Oklahoma State

Houston +10.5 over Cincinnati

Georgia -6.5 over Alabama

Wake Forest +3.5 over Pittsburgh

Utah State +6 over San Diego State

Author: Joe Loncarich