By Ken Noble

Who are the sleepers for the 2021 NFL Draft? Well Draft Dive is your place to find them. Welcome to the first of many articles looking into undervalued prospects for the 2021 NFL Draft. If you want to see who your team should target, then you’re in the right place. Let’s jump into the first edition of sleepers in the 2021 NFL Draft.

First let’s decide what a sleeper is. Is a sleeper solely a 7th rounder that plays well like last years Kamren Curl, or do they have to exceed all expectations and become the GOAT like the 199th pick of the 2000 draft? I think not! For me, a sleeper is a player that is being overlooked or undervalued. Even a potential 3rd rounder should be viewed as a sleeper if he vastly out performs those players taken ahead of him. For the purpose of this article let’s focus on players that are ranked a bit lower(PFF 150 or lower overall). I have decided to choose a few players who have really caught my eye while watching the film, one of which will probably be a deep sleeper that just has too much potential and pedigree for me to ignore.

I tend to believe defense wins championships and I believe Shaq Barrett and JPP recently proved that point. With that in mind, we will be looking at a few defensive sleepers here today. I’d like to focus on Texas Safety Caden Sterns, Texas A&M Linebacker Anthony Hines III, and BYU Defensive Tackle Khyiris Tonga. All three offer quality traits at the NFL Level but need a good system fit to truly surpass expectations. If the cards fall in their favor, we could be watching them play on Sunday for many years to come.

Caden Sterns- Caden is a victim of one of the biggest trends I’ve noticed the last few years in scouting circles. A player who shines early gets all the scouts climbing on his bandwagon only to dismiss him the following year when he doesn’t perform as well as expected. Did all that talent they were raving about just a few months ago get siphoned from his soul while he slept? I highly doubt it! I see evaluators ask what happened to his instincts? Why isn’t he performing at the level he did then? Well, let’s discuss that. In 2018 as a true Freshman he recorded 62 tackles and had 4 interceptions and the football world was set ablaze by his talents. Then, over the last two years he recorded similar tackle numbers but only managed 1 interception over those seasons. So did he lose his instincts? Does a mother Lion suddenly forget to protect her cubs? Or can we attribute his lack of takeaways to scheme change or new coaching? I believe after watching the tape he is still a very instinctual player. 

Texas played more two deep safety in 2018 in the film I watched, which allowed him to cover one half the field and he used his instincts and speed to his advantage. When he is left alone as a single deep safety he can’t cover as much ground. That being said, he does a great job reading and reacting to help stop the run and the underneath pass, he just can’t make it all the way to the outside throws from this position. He is disciplined in his zone assignments and he can also align in man coverage with fairly fluid hips. I like his quick processing and aggressive nature in goal to go situations. And although slightly slim for his frame, I believe he can add 5-10 lbs of muscle with an NFL regiment and add more pop to his tackles. He is already willing and uses his arms to bring down ball carriers but a bit of bulk wouldn’t hurt as long as he keeps his elite quickness for the position. 

 I see Caden as a steal where he is currently going in drafts. He can play at all levels and tackle from sideline to sideline as well as stay on field for zone and man concepts. If he is let loose in a 2 deep zone, I believe he can become a game changer under the right tutelage. I wouldn’t be surprised if we are talking about Caden Sterns as one of the best safeties in this Draft if not the best a few years from now. I see a Julian Blackmon type situation but with a much higher ceiling.

Khyiris Tonga- This prospect is a mountain of a man. At 6’3” 320 lbs he has a quick and agile first step. After watching film on him, I really want to see him line up over a guard every now and then and see if there is more to his game than is currently available on film. Sometimes I believe players receive labels based off of the scheme their college coach has them in. Tonga is almost always over center playing nose with three down lineman at BYU. It leaves me wondering if he could be a better pass rusher if asked to be. That being said, he is very good at doing what he is asked to do, which is eat up space and keep blockers engaged so linebackers can roam free to make plays. When left with only the center to try and block him, Tonga often embarrassed him, looking like a man among boys. This young man isn’t built in the mold of a penetrating DT like an Aaron Donald or Fletcher Cox, however he rarely loses at the point of attack and when he does he seems to move the blocker side to side to stay in the play. He is built more in the run stuffer mold and would fit well as a run stopping block eater in a 4-3 defense although he will probably be drafted as a traditional nose in a 3-4. 

If an NFL team is struggling to free up its linebackers to make plays, they would be smart to target a player like Tonga. Linebackers will love him and be buying him dinner in no time at all. I’m intrigued by what his combine numbers will be at his pro day, and we should be watching these to see if they solidify him as a mid-round pick.

Anthony Hines III- Hines is a deep sleeper that I have been keeping my eye on. After watching more film on him, I am left with more questions than answers but if I was a GM or coach they are questions I’d be willing to try and find the answer to. Hines was a 5 star recruit whose college game film hasn’t lived up to the lofty expectations. He is rangy and athletic making plays from sideline to sideline. However, he doesn’t seem to fight through blocks well and gets lost in the scrum. When he is asked to play coverage I actually believe he is underrated. He tends to mirror running backs well, and I don’t see him being beat over the top by shifty receiving backs. He stays disciplined to his assignment, and I don’t see him over pursue plays. The Texas A&M scheme tends to have all its linebackers come down hill before falling into zone, which leaves them a bit out of place on pass plays. This leads me to wonder if he doesn’t have better coverage skills in zone than what we are seeing. 

When I go back to his high school highlights, I notice he drops well and has smooth hips for someone his size. I see him make plays on the ball as well as the receiver. He breaks up passes in zone sets, so where did that go at the college level? 

Hines has hurt himself in my opinion by declaring for the draft, as there isn’t enough tape showing his growth, especially after opting out in 2020. However, I do see growth from week to week making me wonder how much more room he has to grow. I think another year could have helped him. He has elite talent but not production. I love the raw athleticism here though and think he may go from undrafted to late rounder after his combine numbers from his pro day are released. I view him as an off ball linebacker in a 4-3 scheme, and if I’m picking I’d take a shot on this young man with my late pick, or at least be on the phone to sign him right after the draft to see what he can do!