NFL Draft First Round Projections 

It has finally arrived. After months of watching film, writing reports, filling out mock drafts, and having (mostly) respectful discourse, 2022 NFL Draft selections will be made official tonight. All of the anticipation that has progressively built up since the conclusion of the college football season will be put to bed once Roger Goodell steps up to the podium. Other than seeing what your favorite NFL teams come away with, the best part of draft night is seeing how your evaluations compared to those making the important decisions. Here is one last crack at making some predictions for how the first round will unfold. 

Three quarterbacks will come off the board

For all the talk about how lackluster this quarterback class is, there is always the temptation to take one in the first round. In most years, typically four or five will come off the board.  Though, in some cases, no more than three of them are legitimate first round talents. Last year was an exception with five true first round prospects, but this class is far from that. However, it is more than likely Malik Willis of Liberty and Kenny Pickett of Pittsburgh will find their way into the top 20 picks. By most objective measures, these two are above the rest of the pack and are probably the only guys worthy of a Day One selection.

Still, teams are always looking for their QB of the future and it is easy to envision at least one more coming off the board in the back third of the round. This could be a team trading up from the second round, or a team sitting in the 20’s looking to develop someone. A quarteback like Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral, or Sam Howell for instance.

The run-on wide receivers won’t be as prevalent as people think

There is no doubt that wide receiver is one of the stronger positions in this draft class. However, there is a chance it is being over graded. Some comments from NFL GMs over the last week have hinted at this sentiment as well. In some mock drafts, we have seen as many as seven receivers selected. That number would set an NFL record. In a day and age where elite receivers are becomingly increasing important and easier to find in the draft, this may not set sirens off.

However, that is still a wild number when you also consider the potential supply available on Day Two. Jameson Williams, Drake London, Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson appear to be first round locks. That is four right there. Other than them, there are no guarantees. Treylon Burks, Jahan Dotson, and Christian Watson could very well find homes on Thursday as well. Are they worthy of Day One picks though? Don’t forget about also Skyy Moore, Alec Pierce, George Pickens, or Khalil Shakir. The point is, there are a lot of promising receivers available. In a draft that is strong on the edge and on the offensive line, more teams may look there in the first round. 

Three players on the fence who will hear their name called

Lewis Cine, S, Georgia

Cine can flat out move, and his 4.37 40-yard dash is pretty indicative of that. There has been a lot of talk of Cine’s strong character and impressive IQ on the whiteboard, so it wouldn’t be surprising to hear his name called on Thursday. Way back in October, I said Cine could find his way into the first round. I also said he was my fourth ranked safety; he is firmly in the #2 spot now. 

Arnold Ebiketie, EDGE, Penn State

Ebiketie is a player whose stock has continued to improve throughout the NFL draft process. He is a little raw as a pass rusher, but he has unteachable traits and size for the defensive end position. His college production is also quite respectable for a first round prospect. He may need a year or two to fully develop his arsenal, but the reward could very well be worthwhile. 

Drake Jackson, EDGE, USC

A little bit of a shot in the dark here, but there has been encouraging talk about Jackson recently. He offers the frame, length, and athleticism that is rare for the position and many teams will project they can use him better than the Trojans did. He dropped a lot of weight at USC and played almost exclusively as a 3-4 OLB. Jackson has added 20 pounds since the NFL Combine and has the versatility to play as 4-3 DE as well. 

Three players who will miss out on the first round

Boye Mafe, EDGE, Minnesota

Maye almost certainly has first round grades throughout the league, but depending on how the board works out there is a chance he falls into the early second round. He is a raw pass rusher whose stock has drastically risen since the conclusion of the season because of his testing numbers. Can he be more than a speed and bend guy off the edge? He certainly could, but teams may have pause taking him on Thursday. 

Quay Walker, LB, Georgia

No one has had the ascent into the first round more than Walker over the last week or so. Is it a smokescreen? Many draftniks have him being selected over his Georgia teammate Nakobe Dean, which would be a surprising twist in the draft process. Walker undeniably has impressive athletic traits and film to work off of, but is he going to be selected over the likes of Dean and Devin Lloyd? I don’t buy it.

Tyler Smith, T, Tulsa

Smith would be one of the rawer first round selections in recent memory. That isn’t to say it wouldn’t make sense if he were selected, because it is easy to see a team believing they can get his traits into the building and coach him up. In my mind, I just find it more likely Trevor Penning goes in the first round and don’t see a ton of fits in the back third of the round. Smith seems more likely to be one of the first picks on Friday.

NFL Draft First Round Predictions Analyst- Justin Trevisani.